Will It Last?

The purpose of this calculator is to project your probability of success (i.e. not going broke) by applying only a few simple inputs: your current age, the size of your portfolio, the “risk” of your portfolio, and the size of your current annual withdrawals. For simplicity, the return, risk, and relationship between stocks and bonds have been provided (see assumptions below). This tool is based on the methodology laid out in the Quant U article (.pdf) by PhD Paul Kaplan in Morningstar Magazine’s February/March 2016 edition. This calculator is for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice.
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*Portfolio assumptions include: equity annual returns of 7% and standard deviation of 20%; fixed income annual returns of 3% and standard deviation of 10%; correlation of equity and fixed income returns of 0.50.

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